Muslim Brotherhood says leads Egypt's vote count

The Muslim Brotherhood are leading the elections, no doubt. The expectations are that they will get more than half the vote, a clear majority by itself. The Nour Salafist party will also receive a big share of the vote in Egypt. After visiting Egypt in April/May, I wrote an article in the Arab Digest, in which I expected the victory of Islamists. The good thing is that the presidential elections is still 7 months away; the brotherhood has some time for blunders, economic and social disasters. This will surely bring a secular president in Egypt.


(Reuters) - The Muslim Brotherhood's party said on Wednesday its bloc was leading the vote count in the first stage of Egypt's first election since the fall of Hosni Mubarak.

(the image below is from the Salafist Nour's first female conference, in which there were no women, just male speakers with a pink banner).

al-Nour Salafist party also made headlines after they replaced their women's candidates photos with those of their husbands, saying that "the wife of this man ... is running for elections :) Here is a more serious profile of the Nour by the BBC.

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Mouallem’s Lies: the Homs "terrorists" video was shot in North Lebanon in 2008!

Syria's foreign minister Wallid Mouallem held a news conference yesterday displaying a video showing "Islamist terrorists" in Syria, in an attempt to refute the reports about peaceful demonstrations. The video turned out to be filmed in Tripoli in 2008 when clashes erupted between Sunni and Allawite militants in the Northern city. Hariri's Future TV ran a report on the issue here. Notice the people's faces in Mouallem's video, and then the same individuals interviewed by Future TV in Tripoli. Here is a short article on the scandal from Hariri's NOW Lebanon:

"Dozens of people in Tripoli's Bab al-Tabbaneh on Monday protested against Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem’s allegations that area residents have taken up arms in Syria, the National News Agency reported".

One note on this scandal: The militants in Tripoli are still scary and a worrying sign of what awaits Lebanon.

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The US claims Wikileaks caused no real damage!

An interesting article from the Guardian today on Manning, the Military intelligence officer who leaked this massive trove of Wikileaks documents.

"The filing also claims a defence department review found that all the information allegedly leaked was either dated, represented low-level opinions, or was already known because of previous public disclosures."

My take on the Defence department review is that it is untrue. Since the Wikileaks documents were out, and on every level, there have been scandals and political careers of America's potential allies were ruined. In Lebanon for instance, two career ministers, Yasseen Jaber and Jawad Khalife, were driven out of office after Wikileaks revealed their hidden antagonistic stances towards Hezbollah. In Kuwait, the interior minister's Wikileaks statement on Guantanamo detainees made headlines, and troubled the government. The documents increased the pressure on American diplomats; many politicians refuse to speak comfortably and freely with American diplomats. An American diplomat has told me that their allies in the Gulf are more reserved in expressing their opinions.
The importance of Manning's disclosures will only be known in the next few years. There will be many academic and journalist books based on the Wikileaks disclosures. Regarding the US national security per se, I do not think it will be affected, as the dangers are already overstated and manipulated for political reasons. The national interests will be hurt in the short run, but not on the scale that would alter the current status quo.

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A map of Egypt's political parties: An interactive from the Guardian

Here is an interactive map of Egyptian parties from the Guardian.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2011/nov/22/egypt-election-political-parties-interactive

My only reservation is that the party size is mostly based on their Facebook pages' followers, hardly a sign of anything in a country where the illiteracy rate is above 66%.

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A map of Egypt's political parties: Great guide from the Arabist

This is a great map of Egyptian parties, the majority of which was established after the revolution. You could download the map here

(Taken from the Arabist blog)

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Are the Lebanese fighting a proxy war in Syria?

After many credible reports and official statements, the role of the Lebanese Future Movement in supporting the Free Syrian Army has been never clearer. #Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has already declared his support for the Syrian regime, while some of his allies have called for the formation of an “army” to support Assad.

This whole situation begs the very odd question: Are the Lebanese factions fighting a proxy war in Syria?

As odd as it sounds to the reader, this might be the case. The Syrian regime has for many decades fought proxy wars against its regional and international enemies on Lebanese soil, and for the Lebanese to do the same today, on Syrian soil, and through Syrian sides, is only history’s Karma. The Guardian had reported that Tripoli, the pro-Saudi Hariri’s stronghold, is quickly turning into a border base for the Free Syrian Army, alongside Southern Turkey. And when Hariri was asked on Twitter on whether he supports the Free Syrian Army, he said “I support all Syrians who want their freedom”. This was his first official declaration of support for the Free Syrian Army; while it falls short of acknowledging military support for the militants, the Guardian’s interview with an FSA leader confirmed reports that weapons are smuggled from “sympathetic” sides in Lebanon to Syria. I expect that Hezbollah and its allies are offering similar support to the Assad regime, their only ally in the Arab world.

At first, both sides were holding demonstrations and counter demonstrations in support of either of the Syrian sides. Now, we have moved into a different more militarised phase where both Syrian sides depend on the support of their Lebanese Allies. In Syria’s pro-regime demonstrations, Hezbollah flags are carried; in the anti-regime demonstrations, they are burnt. In Tripoli today, thousands of Hariri supporters gather carrying the Syrian opposition's flag and calling for support to Syria's revolution; soon, during the Shia Ashura rituals, Nasrallah's supporters will express their support towards the Syrian regime, especially Assad.

While those events are worrying signs of increasing tensions between Lebanon’s political/sectarian factions, they constitute by the same token a historical moment in the history of Lebanon’s troubling relation with its neighbour.

(Picture: Assad and Nasrallah on the same poster during pro-regime demos)

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Rafiq Tagi: A Victim of State Propaganda?

After a fatwa pronouncing the death penalty from Grand Ayatollah Fazel Lankarani (five years ago), Rafiq Tagi was assassinated by a knife attack (7 stabs in total, one of the stabs broke two ribs). While an Iranian cleric issued a fatwa against him, an Azeri source spoke to the Arab Digest about his death, accusing the government of standing behind it to support its suggestion that radical Islamists are the only alternative to the incumbant dictator. Here is the Azeri source's statement:

"Foreign journalists are going after the government. In the past two three months, there has been so many articles that uncovered corruption scandals related to the Azeri lobyying companies. Cameron chief strategist took money from the Azeri ruling family to declare that 95% of Azeris support their president. The Iranian Fatwa was issued about 5 years ago, so why would they kill him now? The Azeri authorities usually accuse foreign powers of standing behind local killings and unresolved crimes, but they never prosecuted anyone. The Azeri dictatorship killed public officials, journalists, intellectuals and politicians; not a single case was resolved by the police. None of these high profile killings was resolved, noting that they resolve most other crimes. They have a professional police force, except when it comes to politically motivated killing. In March 2005, a famous journalist who wrote for Russian journalists; he was really an elite commentator. elmar huseynov, a harsh critic of the government was killed in front of his apartment. Huseynov only criticized the ruling family, so there is no other suspect in this killing.
People who know Rafiq was a very kind person, very peaceful. He didn't even argue against the prosecution during his trial. He is a cardiologist. It looks like the government killed him to stop the growing calls for democratisation. Even the pro regime intellectuals are calling for democratisation to avoid an Arab spring scenario. While the killing serves the regime's warnings against the rise of pro-Iranian Islamists, it is also a warning against the growing dissent in Azerbaijan".
The Guardian's Nick Cohen wrote an article, criticizing Iran, and sparing the Azeri dictatorship. This growing focus on Iran, who also heavily persecutes and represses its own intellectual community, spares pro-Western dictatorship any criticisms for their human rights abuses.

After a few days of my post above, the Times reported on Prince Andrews growing links with the Azeri dictator, the report said:

The Duke of York is placing the reputation of the Royal Family at risk because of questionable links with and frequent visits to Azerbaijan, a peer said last night.
The warning was prompted by details of a trip last week by the Duke to the former Soviet country, which has been dogged by allegations of corruption, election rigging and human rights abuses, including torture.
The Duke, who arrived by private jet and in a personal capacity, has been under pressure over his links with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan.

The Times also published this funny photo of the Queen's son:



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The "Free Syrian Army": an important update

The Free Syrian Army (FSA), pretty much a Turkish-Saudi proxy, is going to make a strong launch in the next few days, according to Western Sources. While the Arab League suffocates the regime with sanctions and flying restrictions, the FSA will enter the fray as a major player, soon. The telegraph story yesterday on the Libyan and NATO attempts to supply the Syrian national council with weapons and mercenaries, is very interesting, and it shows how the same Libya NATO team is working on militarising the situation in Syria. There was another report on how the French are training the FSA in Northern Lebanon with the help of the pro-Saudi forces inside Lebanon. The Guardian had first investigated the FSA activity in Northern Lebanon.

My take on this is that the Libyan scenario is the worst for Syria; it only means one things: a Sectarian war that will deepen the rift between Sunnis and Shiites/Allawis. Such tensions will spill into Lebanon and Iraq (again, yes); Saudi Arabia will emerge stronger due to the demographics (Sunni majority). The Iranian role would be restricted to Lebanon, the Syrian coast, Iraq, Eastern Saudi Arabia and Northern Yemen. On the humanitarian, economic and security levels, the situation would be catastrophic: Iraqi-style ethnic cleansing is on the table. Let us hope the FSA fails.

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Syria: Bashar al-Assad urged to take up offer of asylum in Arab world

Political leaders across the Middle East have concluded that the Syrian strongman is doomed after eight months of bloodshed since the uprising against his rule erupted in March, US officials have said.

Jeffrey Feltman, a US assistant secretary of state, told a Senate committee that a number of states had signalled their willingness to give Mr Assad refuge and immunity from prosecution in the hope of bringing a rapid resolution to the Syrian crisis.

"Almost all the Arab leaders and foreign ministers whom I talk to say the same thing: Assad's rule is coming to an end," he said. "It is inevitable. Some of these Arabs have even begun to offer Assad safe haven to encourage him to leave."

Mr Feltman did not identify which states were willing to take in the Syrian leader, but political figures in the region gave warning that time was running out for Mr Assad to make a decision.

"He basically has two options," a Jordanian official said. "He can either stay in Syria and die in ignominy with his body being dragged through the streets and his country facing bloody chaos. "Or he can choose salvation, both for himself and for Syria, and live a quiet life abroad."

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Syria death toll tops 3,500, UN says

More than 3,500 people have died in months of anti-government protests in Syria, according to the UN.

A UN spokeswoman blamed "the brutal crackdown on dissent" for the figure, which was based on sources on the ground.

Last week the Arab League said Syria had agreed to pull its forces off the street in a peace deal.

But since then, the UN says more than 60 people have been reported killed - many in the central city of Homs.

'We will keep protesting'

"Syrian troops continue to use tanks and heavy weaponry to attack residential areas in the city of Homs," said Ravina Shamdasani, spokeswoman for the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).

Opposition activists say security forces have been mounting a heavy offensive on the city over the past few days, particularly on the contested Baba Amr district

.

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