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December 02, 2011

What will happen to Hezbollah after Assad?

December 02, 2011

December 02, 2011

Such uncertain times almost always invite bad analysis and unwarranted speculation. Here is another, on Hezbollah's future after Syria's expected regime change. The author sees more focus on internal politics, which has been already happening since a while now. Listen to her simplistic argument:

With all this in mind, Hezbollah may well opt for the second path, marked by an inward turn toward Lebanese politics. In shifting toward politics, Hezbollah would not completely abandon its regional ambitions nor its mantle of resistance, but would focus more on a national agenda aimed at garnering power inside Lebanon. This strategy would entail building alliances with other Lebanese communities and consolidating its role into Lebanon’s strongest political force. The party would be inspired by resistance to Israel, but chiefly propelled by an agenda for political reforms in Lebanon that broaden its political power, including proportional representation and a lowering of the voting age. Hezbollah would build on its existing alliances with Christians, further its attempts to build bridges to the Sunni community, and seek stronger ties to the Druze.

What a load of nonsense, all of this has been already happening. There is currently a push by Hezbollah's political foes, the Western and Saudi backed 14th of March for disarming the party's resistance against Israel. What will happen after Syria's Assad falls? Hezbollah will face more and more pressure to disarm and give concessions to the other parties. The party will have to concede or face another campaign, in which it has to resort to violence and throw the whole country into a civil war. After such a civil war, or if it concedes, the Hezbollah armed status cannot sustain itself in its current form. The Lebanese conflicting factions have discussed before a defence strategy under which Hezbollah will coordinate its military activities with the Lebanese army. Hezbollah will face so many restrictions on its armed activity, which along with the UNIFIL presence, will dwindle its military capacity and manoeuvre space.


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